Posts Tagged ‘smartphone penetration’
Wireless blog: Two speed Europe for mobile broadband penetration
Alastair Brydon of Unwired Insight discusses the implications of his analysis of mobile broadband penetration growth across Europe.
As I review our model of the evolving mobile service mix, to help gauge mobile network investment requirements, it is striking that a relatively small number of factors are dominant in driving traffic growth. One of these is smartphone penetration. Not surprisingly, smartphones are widely discussed in the industry, because of continued excitement surrounding Apple’s iPhone, Nokia’s attempts to regain smartphone leadership and the increasing success of Android. However, less widely reported is the continued strong growth in mobile broadband services, using dongles and datacards. Active users of these services can download several GBs per month, which will have a major influence on network traffic levels as the number of users increases.
Across Europe as a whole, the penetration of mobile dongles and data cards continues to increase significantly. By the end of 2009, their penetration stood at 5.2% according to the EU, which is nearly double the corresponding figure of 2.8% at the end of 2008. However, behind these figures lies evidence of a two-speed Europe.
Several countries have experienced extremely rapid growth, and these give us signs of things to come. In Finland, Portugal and Austria, penetration of mobile dongles and data cards exceeded 15% at the end of 2009. Finland reached 17.0%, which was up by nearly 8 percentage points in a year (from 9.1%). No wonder that Finland is ahead of the game with LTE deployment, with TeliaSonera launching its LTE network in May 2010.
Mobile broadband services are having a noticeable impact on fixed broadband services too. Unlike the rest of Europe, which experienced a 1.9 percentage point increase in fixed broadband penetration overall, Finland actually experienced a decline of 1.3 percentage points, from 30.7% at the end of 2008 to 29.4% at the end of 2009.
In contrast with the leading markets, France, Spain and Germany all have lower than average penetration of mobile dongles and datacards.
Alongside marked differences in smartphone penetration between countries, and mobile network operators adopting diverse strategies towards mobile broadband services, this results in a complex picture for mobile network traffic evolution. Some operators will find it difficult to cope with traffic growth, while others will be perfectly comfortable, leading to very different capital investment levels.
About the author:
Dr Alastair Brydon has produced more than 40 reports on wireless telecommunications. He is co-founder of Unwired Insight.
Wireless blog: Increased penetration of smartphones will drive 3G traffic
The greater sophistication of smartphones compared with basic mobile phones (for example, in terms of display, processing power and storage) is better suited to usage-intensive data services (such as video), thereby generating higher 3G traffic volumes.
As shown in the figure below, the number of smartphones has been increasing significantly year-on-year, and this growth is set to continue. By 2014, there will be nearly three times the number of smartphone shipments globally as there were in 2008.
Forecast for global smartphone unit shipments, 2006-2014
Apple’s iPhone has demonstrated the potential of smartphones to generate substantially higher data traffic volumes than basic mobile phones. For example, in August 2008, T-Mobile in the Netherlands announced that the average data usage of the 3G iPhone in the first five days following the launch of the 3G iPhone was 10MB per day – equivalent to 304MB per month.
Sales of the iPhone have increased substantially since its initial launch in June 2007, with a total of 21.2 million iPhones sold by March 2009. The 3G-equipped iPhone was commercially launched in July 2008, and unit sales of the 3G iPhone have significantly exceeded the sales of the first-generation (2G) iPhone. By March 2009, the 3G iPhone accounted for 71% (15.0 million) of total iPhone unit sales.
As demonstrated by a number of research sources, data usage from iPhone users is substantially higher than other mobile users.
In March 2009, T-Mobile in the Netherlands reported that iPhone users surf the Web 30 to 40 times more than other mobile data users.
According to a 2008 survey by Nielsen:
- 7% of iPhone users watched video on their phone, making them ten times more likely to do so than the average mobile consumer
- 82% accessed the Internet over their phone, making them five times more likely to do so than the average mobile consumer
- 17% streamed music over their phone, making them seven times more likely to do so than the average mobile consumer.
In March 2009, a survey of iPhone users in the UK by comScore found that 93% of iPhone owners accessed mobile media in January 2009. 79.7% of iPhone users accessed news and information via the browser, compared with 19.8% of all mobile phone users.
About the author:
Mark Heath is co-founder of telecom strategy and telecommunication consultancy company Unwired Insight. He provides regular in-depth analysis on LTE and 4G, and has co-authored over 40 research reports on the biggest issues in the telecom industry.
Press release: 3G traffic volumes will increase 20-fold by 2014, says Unwired Insight
3G operators must be able to support huge increases in mobile data traffic over the next few years, according to a new report from Unwired Insight. The report, entitled ‘Will 3G Networks Cope?’, shows that 3G traffic volumes will rise to unprecedented levels, and some 3G operators will not be able to cope.
Behind the satisfaction of mobile operator executives over the success of mobile broadband services lies an uneasy concern over the implications of continued take-up of such services. Unwired Insight has developed models that forecast, for the first time, realistic future 3G traffic levels and network capacities, to determine if 3G networks are going to be able to cope. The new report provides disturbing reading.
“3G networks have nowhere near the capacity of fixed broadband networks and some 3G networks will quickly become swamped by traffic,” says co-author Dr Alastair Brydon
Key findings of the new report are:
- With the vast majority of cellular users still supported by 2G networks, 3G networks have been underutilised. This is about to change, as cellular users rapidly migrate to 3G services. 3G penetration will reach 120.1% of the population in developed markets by 2014. By this date, 3G will account for over 90% of all cellular (2/2.5/3G) handsets and terminals.
- Mobile broadband services will account for the largest proportion of 3G traffic volumes, and will be one of the biggest challenges for 3G operators. While USB modems and datacards will represent only 16% of 3G devices, they will contribute 73.5% of all 3G data usage by 2014.
- Smartphones, such as the Apple iPhone, will continue to generate significantly higher data usage than more basic mobile phones. The attractive services enabled by smartphones will cause their proportion of the total number of 3G devices to increase from 8% at the end of 2008 to 36% at the end of 2014.
- The overall mix of wireless network traffic will change significantly between 2009 and 2014, with traffic-intensive data services dominating the mix. By 2014, data services will account for 99.4% of all service usage. Video streaming and downloads will contribute the largest proportions of total data usage, at 56.4% in 2014. This is because video services will require a relatively high data rate and will be popular services, being adopted by many users and used for a significant period of time.
“On average, 3G networks will need to support over 1GB per month of traffic per user,” says co-author Dr Mark Heath. “While such usage is perfectly manageable for fixed broadband networks, most HSPA networks will not be able to support anywhere near this level,” he warns.
The new report ‘Will 3G Networks Cope?’ published by Unwired Insight addresses one of the biggest concerns within the mobile industry, as to whether 3G networks will be able to cope with future increases in 3G traffic volumes.
The report gets to grips with this critical issue by quantifying how 3G network capacity and 3G traffic will evolve over the next five years. The report contains 120 pages, 29 figures, 18 tables and 30 000 words. For more information, or to buy the report, click here, email contact@unwiredinsight.com or telephone +44 (0) 1480 819391. Dr Alastair Brydon and Dr Mark Heath are authors of more than 40 reports on key issues in the mobile industry.
A free whitepaper associated with the report is available to download from the Unwired Insight website.
