Posts Tagged ‘3G penetration’
Press release: 3G traffic volumes will increase 20-fold by 2014, says Unwired Insight
3G operators must be able to support huge increases in mobile data traffic over the next few years, according to a new report from Unwired Insight. The report, entitled ‘Will 3G Networks Cope?’, shows that 3G traffic volumes will rise to unprecedented levels, and some 3G operators will not be able to cope.
Behind the satisfaction of mobile operator executives over the success of mobile broadband services lies an uneasy concern over the implications of continued take-up of such services. Unwired Insight has developed models that forecast, for the first time, realistic future 3G traffic levels and network capacities, to determine if 3G networks are going to be able to cope. The new report provides disturbing reading.
“3G networks have nowhere near the capacity of fixed broadband networks and some 3G networks will quickly become swamped by traffic,” says co-author Dr Alastair Brydon
Key findings of the new report are:
- With the vast majority of cellular users still supported by 2G networks, 3G networks have been underutilised. This is about to change, as cellular users rapidly migrate to 3G services. 3G penetration will reach 120.1% of the population in developed markets by 2014. By this date, 3G will account for over 90% of all cellular (2/2.5/3G) handsets and terminals.
- Mobile broadband services will account for the largest proportion of 3G traffic volumes, and will be one of the biggest challenges for 3G operators. While USB modems and datacards will represent only 16% of 3G devices, they will contribute 73.5% of all 3G data usage by 2014.
- Smartphones, such as the Apple iPhone, will continue to generate significantly higher data usage than more basic mobile phones. The attractive services enabled by smartphones will cause their proportion of the total number of 3G devices to increase from 8% at the end of 2008 to 36% at the end of 2014.
- The overall mix of wireless network traffic will change significantly between 2009 and 2014, with traffic-intensive data services dominating the mix. By 2014, data services will account for 99.4% of all service usage. Video streaming and downloads will contribute the largest proportions of total data usage, at 56.4% in 2014. This is because video services will require a relatively high data rate and will be popular services, being adopted by many users and used for a significant period of time.
“On average, 3G networks will need to support over 1GB per month of traffic per user,” says co-author Dr Mark Heath. “While such usage is perfectly manageable for fixed broadband networks, most HSPA networks will not be able to support anywhere near this level,” he warns.
The new report ‘Will 3G Networks Cope?’ published by Unwired Insight addresses one of the biggest concerns within the mobile industry, as to whether 3G networks will be able to cope with future increases in 3G traffic volumes.
The report gets to grips with this critical issue by quantifying how 3G network capacity and 3G traffic will evolve over the next five years. The report contains 120 pages, 29 figures, 18 tables and 30 000 words. For more information, or to buy the report, click here, email contact@unwiredinsight.com or telephone +44 (0) 1480 819391. Dr Alastair Brydon and Dr Mark Heath are authors of more than 40 reports on key issues in the mobile industry.
A free whitepaper associated with the report is available to download from the Unwired Insight website.
Press release: Japan and South Korea lead the way with 3G but have made mistakes
While it is very early days for 3G in most countries, mobile operators in Japan and South Korea have already reached 40% penetration of 3G services and they provide valuable lessons for mobile operators in other regions, according to the report, Lessons from the Japanese and South Korean Mobile Markets: handsets, services, content and pricing, written by Unwired Insight.
Mobile operators in Japan and South Korea have consistently led the world in the development of innovative mobile services and technology. They have unrivalled track records of introducing new handset capabilities and services, and they are currently the only markets to achieve mainstream adoption of services delivered by 3G networks.
“Despite the intention of Western mobile operators to develop a broader range of non-voice services, data ARPUs are still dominated by basic SMS person-to-person messaging,” says Dr Alastair Brydon, co-author of the report. “In contrast, Japanese and South Korean operators generate a significant proportion of their total revenue from data services other than text messaging.” The report shows how this data revenue is achieved with rich portfolios of services, including mobile Internet access, entertainment, ringtones and music, games, mobile TV and video, community portals and mobile transactions.
While Japan and South Korea have had some successes with non-voice services, the Analysys report warns against blindly following their lead. “In the race to offer new services and capabilities, operators in Japan and South Korea have sometimes failed to anticipate the full commercial implications of their actions,” says Alastair Brydon. “Innovation has not always translated into strong revenue growth.” Despite rapid migration from 2.5G to 3G, Japanese operators have struggled to grow overall ARPU. For example, NTT DoCoMo suffered a 15% decline in overall ARPU between 2003 and 2005.
According to co-author Dr Mark Heath, “Obsession with the latest technology and services in Japan has led to insufficient attention to more basic services, such as voice and messaging.” Japan has already seen a steady decline in voice usage, exacerbated by low-priced messaging services, which encourage users to send mobile emails instead of making voice calls. With a stronger focus on voice services, South Korean operators have achieved voice usage growth and maintained voice ARPU with a range of innovative tariffs. Mark Heath adds, “Mobile messaging revenues are in terminal decline in Japan. Despite an average of over 400 mobile emails sent and received per 3G customer each month, messaging revenues in Japan lag those in markets with much lower usage. The pricing method adopted significantly under-prices messaging and other low-bandwidth services.”
Lessons from the Japanese and South Korean Mobile Markets examines the development of the Japanese and Korean mobile markets in order to uncover key lessons for operators worldwide. The report considers the prospects for innovations, such as mobile credit card transactions and handsets equipped to read barcodes, and presents strategies for succeeding with 3G, multimedia services and flat-rate charging for voice and data.
