Press release: 3G networks will face capacity
problems in 2010, says Unwired Insight
Sep 1 2009: While 3G operators have been reporting
annual increases of 300 to 700% in 3G data traffic volumes, they have not
needed to be unduly concerned because volumes have increased from very low
levels. However, a new report published today by Unwired Insight, entitled ‘Will
3G Networks Cope?’, shows that 3G traffic volumes will continue to
increase significantly, and some HSPA networks will have capacity shortfalls
by the middle of 2010.
Since 2007, 3G networks worldwide have experienced substantial traffic
growth, as some 2/2.5G customers have moved to 3G services and mobile
broadband services have emerged. According to the new report, this is just
the beginning. Surplus HSPA capacity will soon be occupied, with continued
take-up of mobile broadband services and the migration of most 2/2.5G users
to 3G services within five years.
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"Mobile broadband services are already having a profound impact
on 3G networks, and yet mobile broadband penetration is still lower
than 10% in most countries,” according to report co-author Dr Mark
Heath. Such services are extremely network-intensive. “A mobile
broadband customer using 1GB per month consumes the equivalent
network capacity of over 7000 minutes of voice telephony,” adds
Heath. Currently, the majority of mobile users are still supported
by 2G networks. “Within the next five years, the vast majority of 2G
customers will migrate to 3G services, substantially increasing
traffic volumes,” warns Heath.
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Some of the key findings of the new report are:
- In the five year period to the end of 2014, 3G traffic volumes in
developed markets will increase by more than 20 times. Drivers for these
rises include increasing 3G penetration, continued adoption of mobile
broadband services, escalating penetration of smartphones, proliferation
of flat-rate service bundles and increasing usage of 3G devices indoors.
- There are significant differences in the outlook for different types
of 3G operator. Some incumbent 3G operators with large customer bases
will face HSPA capacity shortfalls in mid-2010, or even earlier if
customers migrate rapidly from 2/2.5G to 3G services.
- In contrast, new-entrant 3G operators will not suffer from severe
short-term limitations of HSPA capacity, and will have a two-year window
of opportunity to aggressively promote mobile broadband services.
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The report warns 3G operators that they need to take action now,
before it is too late.
According to co-author Dr Alastair Brydon, “The effect of 3G
network capacity shortfalls will be that service users experience
degradation in the quality of service provided by a 3G operator,
particularly at times and locations at which the network is heavily
used.” He adds, “This is likely to cause serious dissatisfaction
among users.”
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The report discusses the actions that operators can take to delay HSPA
capacity problems, such as tariff changes and fair usage policies, slowed
migration of 2/2.5G users to 3G services and deployment of femtocells.
The new report ‘Will
3G Networks Cope?’ published by Unwired Insight addresses one of the
biggest concerns within the mobile industry, as to whether 3G networks will
be able to cope with future increases in 3G traffic volumes.
The report gets to grips with this critical issue by quantifying how 3G
network capacity and 3G traffic will evolve over the next five years. The
report contains 120 pages, 29 figures, 18 tables and 30 000 words. For more
information, or to buy the report,
click here, email
contact@unwiredinsight.com or telephone +44 (0) 1480 819391. Dr Alastair
Brydon and Dr Mark Heath are authors of more than 40 reports on key issues
in the mobile industry.
Click here to download our free white paper.