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Welcome to the latest newsletter from
Unwired Insight. In it, we give you a preview of the findings of our
forthcoming report, to be published on the
1st September 2009. While we have
written over 40 reports, we are pleased to tell you that
this is the very first report published directly by
Unwired Insight.
For more information, please
email us or telephone +44 (0) 1480
819391.
3G networks will face capacity problems in
2010
While 3G operators have been
reporting annual increases of 300 to 700% in
3G data traffic volumes, they have not
needed to be unduly concerned because
volumes have increased from very low levels.
However, a forthcoming report from Unwired
Insight, entitled ‘Will
3G Networks Cope?’, shows that 3G
traffic volumes will continue to increase
significantly, and some HSPA networks will
have capacity shortfalls by the middle of
2010.
Since 2007, 3G networks worldwide have
experienced substantial traffic growth, as
some 2/2.5G customers have moved to 3G
services and mobile broadband services have
emerged. According to the new report, this
is just the beginning. Surplus HSPA capacity
will soon be occupied, with continued
take-up of mobile broadband services and the
migration of most 2/2.5G users to 3G
services within five years.
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"Mobile broadband services are
already having a profound impact on
3G networks, and yet mobile
broadband penetration is still lower
than 10% in most countries,”
according to report co-author Dr
Mark Heath. Such services are
extremely network-intensive. “A
mobile broadband customer using 1GB
per month consumes the equivalent
network capacity of over 7000
minutes of voice telephony,” adds
Heath. Currently, the majority of
mobile users are still supported by
2G networks. “Within the next five
years, the vast majority of 2G
customers will migrate to 3G
services, substantially increasing
traffic volumes,” warns Heath.
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Some of the key findings of the new
report are:
- In the five year period to the end
of 2014, 3G traffic volumes in developed
markets will increase by more than 20
times. Drivers for these rises include
increasing 3G penetration, continued
adoption of mobile broadband services,
escalating penetration of smartphones,
proliferation of flat-rate service
bundles and increasing usage of 3G
devices indoors.
- There are significant differences in
the outlook for different types of 3G
operator. Some incumbent 3G operators
with large customer bases will face HSPA
capacity shortfalls in mid-2010, or even
earlier if customers migrate rapidly
from 2/2.5G to 3G services.
- In contrast, new-entrant 3G
operators will not suffer from severe
short-term limitations of HSPA capacity,
and will have a two-year window of
opportunity to aggressively promote
mobile broadband services.
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The report warns 3G operators
that they need to take action now,
before it is too late.
According to co-author Dr
Alastair Brydon, “The effect of 3G
network capacity shortfalls will be
that service users experience
degradation in the quality of
service provided by a 3G operator,
particularly at times and locations
at which the network is heavily
used.” He adds, “This is likely to
cause serious dissatisfaction among
users.”
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The report discusses the actions that
operators can take to delay HSPA capacity
problems, such as tariff changes and fair
usage policies, slowed migration of 2/2.5G
users to 3G services and deployment of
femtocells.
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