WiMAX analysis
For many years we have tracked the development and deployment of WiMAX technology, while studying its business case and analysing its role alongside 3GPP networks such as UMTS and LTE and 3GPP2 networks such as CDMA2000. This page contains a variety of blog posts relating to WiMAX and its application to mobile broadband services.
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Further delays for UK 4G as the 4G spectrum auction timetable is finally announced
Alastair Brydon, of telecom consultancy Unwired Insight, comments on the UK timetable for 4G spectrum allocation.
Recently there has been a flurry of announcement of LTE launches in Europe, referred to by some as 4G networks. For example, this month, Tele2 and Telenor announced the commercial launch of LTE services in Sweden, with aggressive plans for 99% 4G coverage of the population by 2012. Early widespread deployment of LTE is an essential way to relieve the 3G capacity crisis facing mobile operators and may alleviate the need for punitive tariffs and traffic shaping (which may adversely affect quality of service for mobile users). However, even if 4G networks can be launched immediately, it will still take several years for them to make a significant contribution to mobile network capacity. To do this, they need to be available on a widespread basis and there needs to be a significant penetration of LTE devices, so the earlier operators can begin LTE deployment, the sooner 4G can start helping to relieve 3G capacity problems.
In the UK, LTE will enable O2 and Vodafone to make a much more efficient use of their 900MHz spectrum allocations. LTE can support 25 times the traffic of GSM in the same amount of spectrum. After years of delays to the UK’s 4G spectrum allocation process, the latest 4G news is not good, and will mean that the UK will be at a significant disadvantage compared with other European countries, such as Germany. Germany completed its 4G spectrum auction in May 2010, raising EUR4.38 billion, and operators including Vodafone have already started upgrading base stations with LTE.
This month, Ofcom’s Ed Richards announced the timetable for the 4G spectrum auction in the UK. While Sweden will enjoy 99% population coverage of 4G networks by 2012, the UK spectrum auction will only just have taken place, in the second quarter of 2012. This also relies on the absence of any litigation threats (which have dogged the spectrum auction process to date), which would jeopardise the lengthy timetable yet further. In the long period between now and the auction, there will be a consultation about the auction, due to take place between February 2011 and May 2011. Following this, the final auction regulations will be published by the end of 2011. Ed Richards is reported to have said that this timetable is “ambitious” but from my perspective it looks rather disappointing and a missed opportunity for the UK to be a leader in next-generation mobile services.
Reading various press articles, there seems to be a great deal of confusion over when we’ll see the first LTE network deployments, with spectrum clearance occurring during 2013. Ed Richards suggested that 4G networks will be up and running by the first quarter of 2014, which is over three years away. I’m not sure that mobile network operators, and more specifically their customers, will be happy to wait that long.
About the author:
Alastair Brydon is co-founder of telecom analysis and telecom consultancy company Unwired Insight. He provides regular in-depth analysis on LTE and 4G. He has written over 40 reports on the biggest issues in the wireless industry.
Press release: Wireless broadband to exceed 2 billion customers by 2015
Wireless broadband services will create significant opportunities for revenue growth, and cellular technologies will take the largest share, according to the report Wireless broadband forecasts for 2008-2015: HSPA, HSPA+, EV-DO, LTE and WiMAX, written by Unwired Insight.
Globally, 2.1 billion wireless broadband customers will generate USD784 billion in service revenue by 2015. This revenue increase of about 2400% will be underpinned by continued developments in wireless technologies, improvements in devices and more flexible pricing options.
HSPA will support 88% of all wireless broadband consumers at the end of 2008, and its importance will continue.”Despite the increasing availability of LTE and WiMAX, HSPA and HSPA+ will still support 54% of wireless broadband users by the end of 2015,” according to Dr Mark Heath, co-author of the report.
Key findings of the new report include:
- Because W-CDMA to HSPA to HSPA+ is the natural evolution path for GSM operators, the number of HSPA and HSPA+ customers worldwide will increase from 61 million at the end of 2008 to 1.1 billion at the end of 2015.
- Cellular technologies will dominate wireless broadband services, with twenty times as many users as WiMAX by the end of 2015.
- LTE will take off relatively slowly, but its customer base will reach 440 million by 2015, with associated revenue of USD194 billion.
- WiMAX will be squeezed from developed markets by fixed and cellular broadband services and by 2015 will serve just 98 million customers worldwide, of which 92% will be in developing regions.
WiMAX will fail to achieve a significant share of the rapidly developing wireless broadband market, contributing only 2% of global revenue. “By 2015, there will be twenty times as many customers for cellular broadband services as for WiMAX,” according to Dr Alastair Brydon, co-author of the report, “The vast majority of MNOs will not break ranks to WiMAX, but will upgrade to LTE, resulting in over four times more LTE users by the end of 2015.”
Wireless broadband forecasts for 2008-2015: HSPA, HSPA+, EV-DO, LTE and WiMAX provides detailed global forecasts for wireless broadband subscriber numbers, revenue and ARPU for the period 2008-2015. Forecasts are broken down by wireless broadband technology (HSPA, HSPA+, EV-DO, LTE and WiMAX) and by region.
Press release: The future looks uncertain for mobile equipment vendors
It seems that mobile equipment vendors are facing an uncertain future, according to two reports, Network Evolution from 2007 to 2012: HSPA+, LTE, WiMAX and femtocells and 3G Infrastructure Sharing: the future for mobile networks, written by Unwired Insight.
“Mobile equipment vendors may be depending on 3G enhancements such as Long Term Evolution (LTE) to secure the future of their businesses, by enabling mobile operators to offer network-intensive services such as broadband services to the home and mobile TV services,” said Dr Alastair Brydon, co-author of the reports. “However, our modelling shows that LTE may not be necessary at all.”
The lack of a compelling business case for 3G network enhancements, combined with an increase in network sharing, will have a profound impact on the cellular network infrastructure market.
Key findings from the new reports include the following:
- Mobile operators may not need the capacity gains offered by LTE, because mobile services will increasingly be delivered using alternative technologies, such as femtocells and broadcasting networks.
- LTE will not be widely available before 2010, which is too late to play a significant role in the provision of broadband services to homes and businesses, because of the widespread availability of low-cost DSL and cable services.
- T-Mobile and 3 in the UK announced in December 2007 that they had entered into a network sharing agreement. This announcement is indicative of a trend that is set to spread as operators struggle to expand 3G coverage and make funds available for alternative investments.
“3G network evolution is about to change course”, says Dr Mark Heath. “With doubts about the viability of LTE, the move towards network sharing couldn’t come at a worse time for network infrastructure vendors. It is imperative that vendors increase market share to compensate for the future consolidation of 3G networks.”
3G Network Evolution from 2007 to 2012 examines the evolution of 3G networks in order to identify realistic timescales for, and the capabilities of, 3G enhancements. The report also defines the most effective deployment strategies for mobile operators. It considers key 3G enhancements, including HSUPA, HSPA+, LTE and femtocells, quantifying the services and customer usage profiles that can realistically be supported. The complementary report 3G Infrastructure Sharing considers the strategic impact of extensive network sharing on mobile operators, equipment vendors, regulators and other market players.
